January 2021 Main Event

Plenty of Monetary Stimulus! Geopolitical Tensions. Election Uproar. Pandemic Economy. What to Do?
Bruce Johnstone, Managing Director and Senior Marketing Investment Strategist for Fidelity Investments
Bruce's presentation will discuss the current state of the economies around the world, with particular focus on potential corporate profits growth in the U.S. It will attempt to create a narrative for the stock and bond markets. Geopolitical factors (world event risk) will affect the odds of both the economic and the markets outlook.The presentation will provide insight into:
  • Substantial fiscal stimulus will be necessary to deal with the pandemic economy.
  • Are central banks over-printing to provide the funds for the enormous stimulus (and debt) underway?
  • How to use public stock markets to deal with the enormous uncertainties presented.
Download the pdf presentation here. (Additional material will be presented in the talk.)
Biography: Between degrees from Harvard College and Harvard Business School, Bruce Johnstone served two years in the U.S. Navy as an officer on a Destroyer. He joined Fidelity Investments in 1966. From 1972-1990, he managed the Fidelity Equity-Income Fund. During that period, the fund achieved a return of over 1100%, nearly twice that of the S&P 500. This return ranked Bruce as the #1 equity-income fund manager in the nation for the 19 year period. In 1987, he was named America’s Best Income Investor by Money Magazine. Eric Kobren, former publisher of Fidelity Insight, has said Bruce ranks “a close second” to Peter Lynch as Fidelity’s best all-time fund manager.
The U.S. Economy: On the Mend in 2021?
Rob Valletta, Associate Director of Research in the Economic Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The COVID-19 pandemic created a huge shortfall in U.S. economic activity and the labor market. The recovery path depends largely on virus containment and the possibility of challenging structural adjustments in the economy. Rob will provide an updated assessment of these developments as we enter 2021. What the audience will learn:
  • The COVID hit to the U.S. economy and labor market was huge, rivaling some of the nation’s worst historical downturns.
  • The initial recovery has been solid but may be waning with additional virus outbreaks.
  • The timing of full recovery depends largely on virus containment and whether there are lasting effects of the pandemic on consumer demand, employment patterns, remote work, etc.
Download the pdf presentation here.
Biography: Robert G. Valletta is Associate Director of Research in the Economic Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In addition to general department leadership, his key duties include overseeing the department’s external publications, providing advice on monetary policy, and supporting the public speeches. Rob’s scholarly research is primarily in the field of labor economics, including topics such as unemployment insurance, structural unemployment, part-time work, job security and job mobility, income inequality and poverty, and the effects of employer-provided health insurance on labor market outcomes. He has published widely in peer-reviewed economics journals.Rob began his FRBSF career in 1995, following eight years spent as a visiting and then assistant professor at the University of California, Irvine. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and an undergraduate degree in economics from the University of California, Berkeley. See http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/economists/robert-valletta/

How to Attend:

Due to COVID-19, meetings are webcast. Please see below to register on EventBrite, and then join remotely online via Zoom. You must pre-register on EventBrite: To attend by web:
  • Zoom meeting instructions will be emailed to all registered participants.
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