2019 AAII Silicon Valley Main Events
All the Past Main Event Topics and Speakers
With presentations you can download, where available....
Nov 16, 2019: Tax Cuts & Jobs Act – One Year Down!
Claudia Hill, EA, MBA, Principal, TaxMam, Inc.
Tax Cuts & Jobs Act – One Year Down!
There were clearly winners and losers with the 2017 tax reform. Many taxpayers did not see a reduction in their 2018 taxes. This session will review the key provisions of the TCJA, implementation problems that became evident during the 2019 filing season , and discuss year-end tax planning with consideration of the changes brought by the new laws. You Will Learn:
- A new approach to year-end planning
- Understanding the real tax rates you pay
- Winners and losers from the 2017 TCJA
Oct 19, 2019: A Practical Approach for Conservative Investors and Managing Equity Risk in Uncertain Times
Rob Bernstein ,President, RGB Capital Group LLC
1. A Practical Approach for Conservative InvestorsRob Bernstein will share a well-tested portfolio strategy that seeks to provide long-term returns exceeding the overall market on a fraction of the risk. The discussion will provide tools to construct a low-volatility portfolio with minimal drawdowns, give you an exit strategy for when the market turns down, help you manage through the next bear market and give you confidence to invest money that has been sitting on the sidelines. You will walk away with tactical strategies that you can implement when you get back home. You Will Learn:
- How to measure investment risk
- Why managing risk doesn’t mean giving up on returns; in fact, quite the opposite
- Specific tools to help you manage your invest decision-making process
- How to keep your equity risk exposure in line with overall market conditions
- If it is a good time to invest new money or wait for a better buying opportunity
- How to access the weight-of-the evidence indicators described in the presentation
Sept 14, 2019: How to Make Your Portfolio Muscular
Brian Livingston, Author of “Muscular Portfolios”
How to Make Your Portfolio MuscularFor decades, the financial services industry has sold risky investments, claiming that greater risk was the only path to greater gains. But highrisk strategies are vulnerable to huge losses that can devastate your portfolio. Today, there’s a better approach. Brian Livingston’s new book “Muscular Portfolios” reveals the latest scientific evidence behind what experts call the index investing revolution. In addition, his website, MuscularPortfolios.com, is the first to give away Wall Street’s secret buy-and-sell signals. The site is absolutely free—there are no financial products to buy and no “secret formulas” to pay for. Prior to the seminar, visit https://bri.li/sanjose for advance information. You Will Learn:
- How to get market-like returns with no fear of crashes
- The most profitable way to use the newest low-cost index funds
- How 21st century science demonstrates greater gains with lower risk
Sept 14, 2019: Cybersecurity and the Changing World!
Ed Machado, Senior Information Security Manager, Star One Federal Credit Union
Cybersecurity and the Changing World!An interactive discussion for which attendees will learn and discuss various threats and events in today’s new cyber world. In addition, the interactive presentation will cover recent techniques by fraudsters to obtain personal information through a variety of social engineering tactics and tricks. Attendees will be shown a variety of quick videos as well to help demonstrate and reinforce some of the tactics and be provided with some of the basic security fundamentals in how to safeguard their own personal data and security when using a personal computer, tablet, laptop or smartphone. You Will Learn:
- The importance of personal cybersecurity while performing activities on the internet
- Learn about recent cyber fraud trends, events and future cyber threat predictions
- Obtain tool, resources and best security practices to stay safe online
June 8, 2019: Continued Bull Market? Or is a Cyclical Bear Market Ahead?
Martin Pring, Principal and Investment Strategist Pring Turner Capital GroupContinued Bull Market? Or is a Cyclical Bear Market Ahead?
For stock investors, anticipating a recession is a very important consideration in protecting your portfolio from major drawdowns. That is because, historically, recessions are associated with the most severe bear markets. This business cycle expansion has certainly been unique in many ways, including that it has been amongst the longest, yet slowest on record. So, where are the risks and opportunities today? Martin will discuss what asset allocation decisions can bring you profitably and safely through this current financial market environment. You Will Learn:
- Where we are in the business cycle and what that means for your portfolio
- The technical condition of stocks, bonds and commodities
- How to stay a step ahead of changes in the economy and financial markets
June 8, 2019: Invest in the Best
Jim Kopas , CFA, Financial Advisor Pring Turner Capital Group.Invest in the Best
The “Holy Grail” of investing – Quality, and why this often overlooked factor has consistently led to the ultimate combination (better returns with less risk over the long run). You will learn simple tactics that can help incorporate this crucial factor into your own investment repertoire. In addition, Jim will cover some of the common causes of investor misjudgment and share tips on how you can improve your own decision making. To wrap things up, Jim will share some of his most compelling investment ideas. You Will Learn:
- Why focusing on quality investments can help you earn better long-term returns with less risk
- How to improve your decision making by learning from common investor mistakes
- About Jim’s most compelling investment ideas in today’s market
May 11, 2019: Understanding Closed-End Funds
Bill Jump, Board Member, AAII Silicon Valley ChapterUnderstanding Closed-End Funds
Closed-end funds have existed in U.S. markets since 1893 and currently account for about 20% of New York Stock Exchange-listed securities. Despite their long history, they are frequently overlooked or misunderstood by those who do not understand their unique structure. Bill Jump, will demystify them and present where they do and do not fit in a well-diversified portfolio. He will cover several strategies he uses to enhance investment returns from closed-end portfolios and how to research them. You Will Learn:
- How closed-end funds differ from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds
- Where closed-end funds can benefit your portfolio
- Strategies and tactics to enhance returns from closed-end funds
May 11, 2019: Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation
Brian Nelson, CFA President of Equity Research, Valuentum Securities
The pitfalls of valuation multiples [e.g., price-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio], traditional quantitative analysis (e.g., value factor, size factor) and the great contradiction between factor investing and the efficient markets hypothesis. He will show how enterprise valuation rests at the intersection of behavioral economics, quantitative theory, equity valuation and, therefore, finance itself. Nelson will talk about how enterprise valuation can be used to identify bubbles and mispricings and how it’s valuable to dividend growth and income. See Brian's new book, Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation! You Will Learn:
- The pitfalls of valuation multiple analysis and the risks of extrapolating some empirical quantitative conclusions
- A critical framework to view and interpret stock price movements and stock valuation
- The universal nature of enterprise valuation to all things finance from competitive advantage analysis to dividend growth investing and beyond
April 13, 2019: Charitable Planning in a New Tax and Giving Environment
Julia Reed, Principal & Adviser, Compass Investments LLC
Charitable Planning in a New Tax and Giving Environment
In 2017, charitable gifts surpassed $400 billion for the first time in U.S. history with nearly three quarters coming from individual donors. Learn about strategies for being more impactful with your charitable giving, including utilization of the best asset, determining a suitable vehicle, engaging your family and legacy creation. Come away with an action plan to increase the tax value and personal fulfillment of supporting the causes most dear to you. You Will Learn:
- How to maximize impact and tax deductions for your charitable giving
- Perspective on the Tax Cut and Jobs Act and its effects on charitable giving
- Available giving vehicles including donor-advised funds
April 13, 2019: To Improve Performance, Ditch Emotions, Instincts and Overconfidence
Richard Lehman , Ph.D. Author, Investment Adviser; Instructor, U.C. Berkeley
To Improve Performance, Ditch Emotions, Instincts and Overconfidence
It is widely acknowledged that individual investors underperform the market averages over the long term. Over the past 20–30 years a huge body of academic research has provided enlightenment on this phenomenon. It is not financial or economic research, it is behavioral research. And it is showing that the best way to improve your investment performance is to change your behavior, not your strategy. The financial industry has embraced this message, as financial degrees and certifications now require education in behavioral finance. Individual investors have even more to gain by modifying their behavior as well. You Will Learn:
- How much individuals underperform the market averages
- What the key behavioral factors are that hinder investment performance
- How investors can begin to improve their performance by addressing their behavior
Mar 9, 2019: How Does the Bucket Strategy Work in Practice? and
Morningstar's Best Ideas for 2019 and Beyond
Christine Benz , Director of Personal Finance, Morningstar, Inc.
1. How Does the Bucket Strategy Work in Practice?The bucket strategy for retirement portfolio planning involves building your portfolio based on your expected withdrawals from it. The overarching goal is to build enough of a bulwark in safe securities at the front end of your portfolio to ensure that you never have to spend from any asset when it’s in a trough. But implementation questions abound. How much can you withdraw each year, and where should you withdraw it from? How do you maintain a bucket system on an ongoing basis, and what happens if your portfolio consists of multiple silos—traditional, taxable and Roth? Morningstar’s Christine Benz talks about bucket portfolios, the benefits they offer and the challenges they pose. You Will Learn:
- How the bucket approach can help retirees source their needed in-retirement cash flows
- How to implement a bucket regimen in practice, including tax considerations, bucket “maintenance” and withdrawal-rate sustainability
- How a basic bucket portfolio would have performed since 2000
- Morningstar’s criteria and systems for rating stocks, mutual funds and ETFs
- Which parts of the equity market are attractively valued and overvalued, based on Morningstar’s bottom-up research
- Morningstar’s best ideas for fixed income, tax planning and protection from inflation
Feb 9, 2019: REITs in Depth
Brad Thomas , Editor, Forbes Real Estate Investor; Senior Research Analyst, iREIT Investor
REITS In Depth
Real estate investment trusts (REITs) have consistently outperformed many more widely known investments. Over the past 15-year period, for example, REITs returned an average of 11% per year, better than all other asset classes. Since 2009, REITs have enjoyed positive returns; large-cap stocks and cash are the only other classes that paralleled that record. Even in 2015, a “year of fear” related to rising rates, REITs returned 2.4%, beating most all other asset classes. Prepare yourself, and your portfolio, to benefit from the demand for REITs that will follow the creation of a real estate global industry classification standard (GICS) sector. Brad Thomas will give his presentation in two parts. You Will Learn:
- Why income investors should consider and own real estate investment trusts (REITs)
- The tax-deferral advantages of many REITs
- How to analyze REITs for dividend sustainability
Jan 12, 2019: Where Do We Go From Here?
Al Zmyslowski, Computerized Investing Chair, AAII Silicon Valley Chapter
Where Do We Go From Here?
Al Zmyslowski and Bill Jump are joined by members of the Silicon Valley board and present the key takeaways from the recent 2018 AAII Investor Conference and provide a market review as we enter 2019. Their presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You Will Learn:
- Highlights from the 2018 AAII Investor Conference
- An update on the markets looking into 2019
- With a panel discussion: quiz your board members
Jan 12, 2019: Market Update and San Francisco Federal Reserve
Liz Laderman , Senior Outreach Economist, Economic Education and Outreach Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Market Update and San Francisco Federal Reserve
Presentation focuses on explaining the “dual mandate” goals of maximum employment and stable prices that Congress has given the Federal Reserve for monetary policy and reporting on where the U.S. economy is with respect to those goals and where it’s headed. She’ll look at the overall growth of the U.S. economy and the implications of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s forecasted growth rate for unemployment and inflation. She’ll also discuss what factors are influencing the economy and the San Francisco Fed’s forecast and compare baseline growth today with growth rates seen in the past. You Will Learn:
- What the Fed’s dual mandate for monetary policy really means
- How the U.S. economy is doing with respect to the dual mandate goals, and where it is headed
- What factors underlie the San Francisco Fed’s forecasts for U.S. growth, unemployment and inflation
